一、Trade policies are being stepped up, and import and export data of many countries are fluctuating violently

• China's exports are "increasing in volume and falling in price", and imports continue to shrink

Data from the first quarter of 2025 showed that China's steel exports reached 27.43 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, but the average export price fell by 10.5%; the export volume of steel billets surged by 353.8%. In terms of imports, steel imports were 1.55 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.3%, and the average import price rose by 1%. In March, exports were 10.46 million tons (+5.7%), and the average export price fell by 11.5%, reflecting the intensified price competition in overseas markets.

• The effect of India's tax increase is evident, with both imports and exports falling

Affected by the 12% temporary tariff on imported steel in April, India's imports of finished steel in April fell 11.3% year-on-year to 500,000 tons, and China's exports to India fell sharply by 26.5%; during the same period, India's finished steel exports fell to 400,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 25.7%, and domestic hot-rolled coil prices "rose slightly" due to supply contraction.

二、Regional price differentiation intensifies, with a sluggish Russian market and strong international markets

• Russian steel prices have fallen continuously, and may fall another 5% in the short term

As of mid-May, the prices of Russian rebar, hot-rolled coil and other products fell by 0.4%-2% month-on-month, mainly due to weak domestic and foreign demand and high capacity utilization of steel mills. Analysis shows that if demand does not improve, prices may continue to fall by 3%-5% in the coming months.

• The overall international steel market is strong, and the trends in Asia and Europe and the United States diverge

In the first half of June, the global steel benchmark price index rose by 1.3% month-on-month, but fell slightly by 0.2% week-on-week. Among them, the Asian long product index rose by 2.1% month-on-month, and the spot price of Chinese rebar rose by 1.2% week-on-week; while the price of European hot-rolled coil fell by 0.8% week-on-week, and the price of cold-rolled plate in the American market rose by 1.5% month-on-month due to the recovery of demand in the automotive industry, and the regional market differentiation was significant.

三、Policy and demand game, the market faces long-term variables

• The escalation of trade frictions impacts the supply chain

The United States has recently frequently adjusted its tariff policy, and the neighboring countries have launched anti-dumping investigations on Chinese steel, which has increased the export cost of Chinese steel. For example, a Southeast Asian country imposed a temporary anti-dumping duty on Chinese galvanized sheets, resulting in a 15%-20% increase in procurement costs for local importers.

• "One Belt, One Road" boosts demand expectations

Institutions predict that with the advancement of the "One Belt, One Road" infrastructure projects, global steel demand may increase by an additional 150 million tons in 2025, especially the demand for rebar and medium and thick plates in Southeast Asia and the Middle East will increase significantly, but geopolitical risks and price fluctuations of raw materials (iron ore, coking coal) are still the main uncertainties.

四、Industry observation: short-term shocks and long-term opportunities coexist

The current global steel market is in a period of interweaving between "policy market" and "demand market" - trade barriers suppress prices in the short term, but infrastructure demand in emerging markets and green steel technology iteration (such as hydrogen-based steelmaking) are expected to inject long-term momentum into the industry. Industry insiders suggest that companies pay close attention to changes in tariff policies in various countries, and at the same time deploy high value-added products to cope with market differentiation.