Global steel demand in 2025 is flat at 1.75 billion tons, highlighting the resilience of the industry in a complex environment. Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, Chairman of the Market Research Committee of the World Steel Association, pointed out that this result benefits from three supporting factors: the risk - resistance ability shown by the global economy, the continuous public infrastructure investment of major economies, and the expected loose financing conditions. Although uncertainties such as the escalation of global trade frictions and geopolitical conflicts still exist, the demand side has got rid of the continuous downward trend, laying the foundation for the rebound in 2026.From the supply side, the effect of global steel production capacity adjustment is gradually emerging. As the world's largest steel producer, China's crude steel output in 2025 is expected to remain at about 1 billion tons, and supply optimization will be achieved through market - oriented capacity reduction and environmental protection constraints; Europe has cleared inefficient production capacity under the pressure of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), and the capacity utilization rate has rebounded to more than 65%, and the imbalance between supply and demand has been alleviated.
Although the 1.3% demand growth rate in 2026 is moderate, it marks that the industry has entered a cyclical repair stage. This growth is not driven by a single region, but presents a multi - wheel driving pattern of "led by emerging economies + recovery of developed markets": the demand of developing economies will maintain rapid growth, the demand of developed countries will end the downward trend for four consecutive years, and the global steel trade structure will gradually tend to be balanced.It is worth noting that the quality of this rebound is higher - the demand growth is mainly concentrated in high - end fields such as manufacturing upgrading and green infrastructure, rather than the simple expansion of traditional construction steel, which is highly in line with the general trend of global industrial upgrading and low - carbon transformation.
Developing countries other than China have become the core driving force for the growth of global steel demand. The report predicts that the demand growth rate of such economies will reach 3.4% in 2025 and further increase to 4.7% in 2026. Among them, India, Vietnam, Egypt and Saudi Arabia constitute the "four strong growth countries", showing strong industrialization and urbanization dividends.India: As the world's fastest - growing major steel consumer, the demand growth rate will be as high as 9% in 2025 - 2026, and the demand scale in 2026 will increase by 75 million tons compared with 2020. This growth is mainly due to the large - scale infrastructure construction plan promoted by the Indian government and the accelerated process of manufacturing localization, driving the simultaneous explosion of demand for construction steel and industrial steel.Southeast Asia and the Middle East: Vietnam undertakes the transfer of global manufacturing industry by virtue of its labor cost advantage, and the demand for construction steel continues to climb; Saudi Arabia promotes the structural growth of steel demand relying on energy transformation and urbanization construction; The infrastructure investment boom in Egypt and other Middle East and North Africa countries further amplifies the regional demand potential.
As the "ballast stone" of global steel demand, the downward trend of China's demand will slow down significantly. The report predicts that the decline in China's steel demand will be about 2.0% in 2025 and further narrow to 1.0% in 2026, far lower than the previous average annual decline of 3% - 4%. This change is mainly due to three factors:Policy underpinning effect: The "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Steel Industry (2025 - 2026)" clearly states that the added value of the industry will grow by about 4% annually in the next two years, and the balance between supply and demand will be promoted through the policy orientation of "stabilizing growth and preventing internal competition".Optimization of demand structure: Although the demand for steel in the real estate industry is difficult to rebound significantly in the short term, the demand in new infrastructure, new energy vehicles, shipbuilding and other fields is growing rapidly, making up for the reduction of traditional building materials. Among them, the annual compound growth rate of the new energy vehicle steel market scale reaches 25%, and the demand for high - end plates increases by 12% annually.Upgrading of export structure: Although direct steel exports face trade barriers, the proportion of high - value - added steel exports has increased. At the same time, the steel products indirectly exported through downstream manufacturing industries still maintain a large scale. In 2024, China's indirect steel exports reached 134 million tons, becoming a supplement to demand.It should be noted that China's steel demand still faces downward risks: the tightening of the global trade environment may inhibit the demand for steel in the manufacturing industry, and the financial pressure of local governments may restrict the intensity of infrastructure investment, so the foundation for the balance between supply and demand still needs to be consolidated.
The steel demand of developed countries will usher in a turning point in 2026, and the annual growth rate is expected to reach 1.5%, ending the continuous decline since 2021. Among them, the recovery growth of the European market is the most noteworthy:Europe: Driven by the implementation of green hydrogen projects, the recovery of manufacturing industry and the CBAM policy, steel demand will achieve recovery growth, and the regional growth rate is expected to reach 1.8% in 2026. The industry reduces carbon emissions through technological upgrading, and at the same time benefits from the infrastructure investment brought by the EU's green new deal, and the demand structure transforms to low - carbon and high - end.United States: As the effect of the implementation of the Infrastructure Act gradually emerges, steel demand will stabilize and pick up, but trade protectionist policies still restrict imports, and demand growth mainly depends on domestic production capacity to meet.Japan and South Korea: The sluggish demand situation will continue until 2026, mainly due to factors such as the relocation of domestic manufacturing industries and the shrinking of infrastructure demand caused by population aging. The industry focuses on the production and export of high - end special steel.
At present, the global steel industry still faces multiple constraints: the imbalance between supply and demand in the Chinese market is still the main contradiction. In 2024, the profit of the steel industry decreased by 42.6% year - on - year, and the average sales profit margin of key enterprises was only 1.97%, which was at the downstream level of the industrial industry; The intensification of international trade protectionism, in 2024, China suffered 33 original trials of steel trade relief cases, equivalent to the total of 2020 - 2023, and it is expected that more than 20 million tons of direct and indirect steel exports will be affected in 2025; The fluctuation of raw material prices and the increase of environmental protection investment further squeeze the profit space of enterprises. More than 80% of steel production capacity needs to complete ultra - low emission transformation by the end of 2025, and enterprises are under great financial pressure.
Structural optimization driven by policies: Policies such as China's "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Steel Industry (2025 - 2026)" and the EU's CBAM promote the transformation of the industry to high - quality development, the production capacity layout is more reasonable, and the product structure is upgraded to high - end and differentiated.Market space for demand upgrading: Emerging fields such as new energy vehicles, wind power, nuclear power, and high - end equipment manufacturing have seen a surge in demand for high - end products such as high - strength steel and silicon steel, while the import dependence of such products still reaches 30%, providing broad space for enterprise technological innovation.New track for international layout: There is a huge steel gap in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Chinese steel enterprises can avoid trade barriers and expand incremental markets by building factories overseas and exporting technologies.
The global steel industry is in a critical transformation period of "stabilizing total volume and optimizing structure". The trend of moderate recovery in 2025 - 2026 is clear, but the growth momentum has shifted from scale expansion to quality improvement. For industry participants, three major trends need to be grasped:Regional layout tilts towards growth poles: Focus on investment opportunities in emerging markets such as India, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East, and get close to the demand side through localized production;Transformation of product structure to high - end: Increase R & D investment in products such as high - strength automobile plates, electrical steel, and special alloys to meet the needs of manufacturing upgrading and low - carbon transformation;Transformation of development mode to green: Respond to the global dual - carbon goals, accelerate the research and development of low - carbon technologies such as ultra - low emission transformation and hydrogen steelmaking, and reduce policy compliance risks.
