Tata Steel India released its Q3 (October-December 2024) production data on January 8, 2025, revealing that steel deliveries from its domestic operations reached 5.29 million tonnes, marking a 4% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) increase and an 8% year-on-year (YoY) rise—setting a new quarterly delivery record. For the first nine months of FY2024 (April-December 2024), cumulative deliveries hit 15.3 million tonnes, with domestic deliveries up 4% YoY. Its export business also expanded steadily, driven by supply chain optimization. Meanwhile, Tata Steel’s Netherlands plant produced 1.76 million tonnes of crude steel in the same quarter, with deliveries totaling 1.53 million tonnes (including 120,000 tonnes supplied to the UK market). Cumulative deliveries over nine months surged 16% YoY, primarily fueled by higher capacity utilization.
Data from the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) showed that China’s Steel Price Index (CSPI) stood at 104.34 points at the end of October 2025, down 1.65% month-on-month (MoM) from 106.09 points at the end of September and 14.28% YoY. By product category, hot-rolled seamless pipes saw the largest MoM price drop: the end-October quotation was RMB 4,763/tonne, a decrease of RMB 97/tonne (-2.00%) from September. High-speed wire rod (6.5mm) prices fell to RMB 3,991/tonne, down RMB 89/tonne (-2.18% MoM). While direct production data for the first ten days of October is unavailable, industry estimates suggest marginal growth in output during this period, supported by the 4.0% MoM increase in average daily steel output of key steel enterprises in late September (2.142 million tonnes/day). Notably, the proportion of high-value-added products continued to rise amid price adjustments.
On October 7, 2025, the European Commission officially unveiled a proposal to restrict steel imports. Starting from 2026, duty-free import quotas will be cut by 47% from 2025 levels to 18.3 million tonnes, with a 50% punitive tariff imposed on imports exceeding the quota. The policy targets "global overcapacity," with EU officials explicitly naming China as a key focus—despite China’s steel exports to the EU totaling only 3.89 million tonnes in 2022, accounting for just 13.9% of the EU’s total steel imports.
The knock-on effects of the policy are already evident, with the UK—one of the EU’s largest steel import sources—bearing the brunt. In 2024, the UK exported 2.7 million tonnes of steel, 78% of which (worth nearly GBP 3 billion) went to the EU. Eight of the UK’s top ten export destinations are EU countries, including Ireland and Belgium. However, the UK’s domestic crude steel production has been in steady decline: 2024 output reached only 4.2 million tonnes, a 11.7% YoY drop, leaving the country with an import dependency rate of over 80%. The EU’s quota reduction will directly widen the UK’s export gap. On October 9, the UK Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy held an emergency meeting with industry representatives, and UK steel enterprises have formally requested the government to secure an independent national quota.
Weekly data from the UK-based Commodity Research Unit (CRU) showed that its global steel price index (CRUspi)—which tracks 5 core products (hot-rolled coil, cold-rolled coil, etc.) across 39 markets, with 1994 Q2 as the base period (100 points) and weights based on consumption shares in North America, Western Europe, and Asia—hovered between 290-295 points in early October. Regionally, the North American long steel index rose QoQ, supported by reduced imports; the European flat steel index edged down due to weak demand; and the Asian index fluctuated slightly, influenced by China’s price adjustments.
At the end of October, the CSPI long steel index stood at 110.13 points (-1.52% MoM), while the flat steel index was 100.45 points (-1.75% MoM)—with the flat steel decline 0.23 percentage points steeper than that of long steel. From a weekly perspective, the index rebounded slightly to 106.16 points in the second week of October (the first week after China’s National Day holiday), then fell to 105.00 points in the third week, dropped further to 104.34 points in the fourth week, and edged down to 104.28 points in the first week of November—indicating the market is in a phase of supply-demand rebalancing.
In the short term, two key variables will dominate the latter half of October: the progress of the EU policy (which requires approval from the European Parliament and all 27 EU member states) and the outcome of the UK’s negotiations. If the quota policy takes effect as proposed, EU steel imports are expected to fall below 20 million tonnes in 2026, a 28.6% decrease from 28 million tonnes in 2024. For China, while the direct impact is limited (EU-bound exports accounted for less than 4% of China’s total steel exports in 2022), vigilance is needed against derivative measures such as "third-country transshipment restrictions."
In the long run, the industry’s recovery logic remains intact: capacity expansion by enterprises like Tata Steel India, the rising share of high-value-added products in China, and growing demand from the global manufacturing recovery will offset the negative impacts of trade protectionism. CISA predicts that as seasonal demand for long steel rebounds in mid-to-late November, the CSPI long steel index is likely to stabilize first, with the comprehensive index expected to rise above 105 points by the end of November. Industry analysts note that global crude steel output is projected to exceed 1.9 billion tonnes in 2025, a 1.2% YoY increase, with emerging markets contributing the majority of the growth.
