In late November 2025, the international steel market presented a complex and diverse development trend under the combined influence of macroeconomic expectations, industrial policy adjustments and cross-border enterprise layout. The expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut injected capital vitality into the bulk commodity market, the US coke oven regulatory exemption policy attempted to ease the pressure on the local steel industry, and the in-depth cooperation between Asian steel enterprises accelerated the restructuring of the global stainless steel production capacity pattern. Each event has become a key variable affecting the industry's development direction.

On November 25th, data from CME "Fed Watch" showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December soared to 81%, a sharp increase from the previous 69.4%. This macro signal quickly became the core factor stirring the international steel market. From the perspective of capital logic, an interest rate cut means a reduction in the cost of market capital, and a large amount of liquidity is expected to flow from low-risk bond and savings sectors to bulk commodity markets such as steel, thereby driving up asset prices, which is also the core driving force behind the rebound in international steel futures this time.

Boosted by this expectation, the international steel futures market broke the previous downward oscillation pattern and showed a significant rebound. Among them, the rebar price closed above 3100 points, the hot-rolled coil price stood firm at the 3309-point mark, and the black series finished products performed particularly well. It is worth noting that the rise in steel futures this time is not driven by a single factor; support from the raw material side also added impetus to the market. Iron ore prices remained strong, and coking coal and coke prices stabilized after falling, forming a dual positive pattern of "macro expectations + raw material support".

However, the market remains cautious about the subsequent trend of steel prices. Currently, it is the off-season for global steel consumption. The start-up rate of infrastructure projects in Europe and North America is lower than expected, and the order volume of major steel users such as automobile and machinery manufacturing is also at a low level. The weakness of terminal actual demand has become a key shortcoming restricting the upward movement of steel prices. Even if the interest rate cut expectation brings benefits at the capital level, if the demand side fails to follow up in a timely manner, this rebound in steel futures may only be a short-term market driven by capital.

On November 21st local time, US President Trump signed an executive order approving a two-year regulatory exemption policy for coke ovens, which is regarded as an important measure for the US to boost the local steel industry. Coking coal is the core raw material for steel production, and about 70% of US steel production capacity relies on metallurgical coke. Previously, stringent emission regulations on hazardous air pollutants had put US steel enterprises under high environmental rectification costs, and some old coke ovens even had to stop production due to failure to meet compliance standards, directly affecting the release of local steel production capacity.

The introduction of this regulatory exemption order allows coking facilities to be temporarily exempted from some environmental regulations in the next two years, effectively relieving the production pressure on enterprises. After the policy was implemented, many US steel mills announced the resumption of suspended coke oven production lines, and it is expected that the supply of metallurgical coke will increase steadily, providing a guarantee for the stable release of local steel production capacity. Benefiting from this positive news, the stock price of SunCoke Energy, the largest independent producer of high-quality coke in the US, climbed to an intraday high in trading on that day, and the capital market showed a positive attitude towards the short-term prospects of the US steel industry.

Of course, this policy has also sparked controversy in the environmental protection field. Environmental organizations point out that pollutants such as lead, mercury and benzene emitted by coke ovens are highly carcinogenic, and short-term regulatory exemptions may lead to an increase in air pollutant emissions, which is contrary to the environmental goals previously proposed by the US, and the sustainability of the policy has thus been questioned.

In terms of enterprise strategic layout, the news of cooperation between Tsingshan Group and POSCO on November 5th became an important change in the Asian stainless steel market. China's Tsingshan Group and South Korea's POSCO reached a cooperation intention to jointly build a 2 million-ton stainless steel plant in the Morowali Industrial Park on Sulawesi Island, Indonesia. This production capacity scale is equivalent to the total annual output of all stainless steel plants in South Korea, and also marks the further shift of the global stainless steel production capacity focus to Southeast Asia.

Indonesia, with its rich nickel ore resources, has become a core production base for the global stainless steel industry, and the Morowali Industrial Park is a key nickel iron and stainless steel industrial cluster built by Indonesia. As a global leader in the stainless steel industry, Tsingshan Group has a mature nickel ore mining and smelting industrial chain in Indonesia; POSCO has advanced stainless steel production technology and global market channel advantages, and the cooperation between the two sides has achieved in-depth complementarity of resources and technology. According to the agreement, POSCO will acquire a 44.12% stake in the joint venture, Tsingshan Group will retain the controlling stake, and the new plant is expected to start construction in 2026.

This cooperation not only changes the competitive pattern of the Asian stainless steel market, but also means a key adjustment in POSCO's business layout - its stainless steel production capacity will gradually shift from the Chinese market to Indonesia, which has more abundant resources and lower production costs. Industry insiders analyze that with the continuous expansion of Indonesia's stainless steel production capacity, the supply side of the global stainless steel market will be more abundant, and the focus of industry competition will also shift from production capacity scale to product added value and technological innovation.