Export Data Exceeds Expectations Across the Board, Overseas Orders Burst Concentratedly

Data shows that aluminum exports in April presented a pattern of "rising both in volume and price, and prosperity in both domestic and foreign markets":

• Year-on-year: 598,000 tons, an increase of 80,000 tons compared with 518,000 tons in the same period of 2025, a growth rate of 15.4%;

• Month-on-month: A sharp increase of 113,000 tons compared with 485,000 tons in March, a growth rate of 23.3%, with the monthly increment hitting a new high this year;

• Cumulative: The total exports of aluminum products from January to April reached 2.054 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.1%, and the annual exports are expected to hit a record high.

  
  

In terms of product structure, automotive lightweight profiles, photovoltaic aluminum brackets, new energy battery trays, and high-end architectural aluminum profiles have become the main export products. Among them, the demand for automotive aluminum and power grid aluminum is the strongest, with concentrated release of orders from leading overseas automakers and photovoltaic enterprises.

Three Major Logics Drive the Explosive Growth of Exports, Global Supply Gap Becomes the Core Driver

The strong outbreak of aluminum exports this round is the result of the resonance of three factors: shrinking overseas supply, obvious domestic and foreign price difference advantages, and policy dividend support:

1. Expansion of global aluminum supply gap: The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has restricted a total of more than 2.6 million tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in Qatar, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and other countries. Coupled with the continuous production reduction due to high electricity prices in Europe, a global supply gap of 1.5-2 million tons per year has been formed. LME aluminum inventories have dropped to a historical low of 350,000 tons, and overseas spot premiums have soared, forcing global buyers to turn to China for purchases;

2. Obvious price competitiveness due to domestic and foreign price differences: In April, the LME aluminum price remained at a high level of 3,600 US dollars per ton, while the domestic aluminum price was about 3,400 US dollars per ton, with a domestic and foreign price difference of 200 US dollars per ton. Combined with the 13% export tax rebate policy, Chinese aluminum products have significant cost performance advantages, and overseas orders have shifted rapidly;

3. Domestic high inventory pressure forces exports: Previously, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventories were at a high level, and exports have become the core channel for inventory digestion. The surge in exports in April directly drove inventories into a rapid de-stocking cycle. The inventory inflection point appeared in May, and the suppression of high inventories on aluminum prices continued to weaken.

   
   

Export Remains Strong in May, Aluminum Price is Expected to Stabilize and Recover

Industry research shows that aluminum export orders in May continued the strong momentum in April, with strong overseas stocking demand, and orders of leading enterprises are scheduled until June-July. With the continuous increase in exports, domestic aluminum inventories are being digested at an accelerated pace. Coupled with the continuous improvement in global demand for new energy, photovoltaic, and automotive lightweight, the operating center of aluminum prices has gradually moved up. The spot quotation of Changjiang A00 aluminum has stabilized around 24,300 yuan per ton, and is expected to hit the 25,000 yuan per ton mark in the later period.