NEWS&CASES

Time：2026-08-10
Class：News
In‑depth Analysis of Sharp 22.8% YoY Drop in US Steel Imports in H1 2026

I. Three Core Drivers Behind Plunging Imports

1) Heightened Section 232 tariffs erect high trade barriers

In June 2025, the US raised baseline Section 232 steel tariffs from 25% to 50%, covering the vast majority of overseas steel shipments entering the US.
  • Only limited tariff‑exempt quotas are available under USMCA rules. Nearly all finished steel from other countries is subject to heavy duties.
  • With landed overseas prices far above domestic offers, US buyers have actively cut back foreign orders and prioritised purchases from local mills.
  • Imported finished steel now accounts for merely 16% of US steel consumption, meaning 84% of domestic demand is met by domestic production. Imports serve only as supplementary supply.

2) Expanded domestic EAF capacity pushes operating rate to 89%

Massive investments have gone into US short‑cycle electric‑arc furnace plants fed by scrap steel.
  • EAF production offers high flexibility with shortened lead times. Hot‑rolled plates, structural tubes and standard line pipes can be largely supplied locally.
  • Fewer scheduled outages at blast furnaces lifted overall crude‑steel output by 4‑6% year‑on‑year, displacing import volumes.
  • Domestic production still falls short in niche segments: high‑grade special alloys, heavy‑wall high‑pressure line pipes and certain special bar grades, which remain import‑dependent.

3) Restructured global supply reshuffles import sources

  1. South Korea becomes the leading import source: Its steel exports to the US surged 37.4% YoY in H1, reaching nearly 1.99 million short tons and outpacing traditional suppliers Canada and Brazil.
    1. POSCO and other Korean mills deliver steel for data‑centre infrastructure, hot‑rolled coils and selected tubular goods.
    2. Favourable quota allocations under trade arrangements enable South Korea to act as a key overseas supplier for the US.
  2. Shipments from long‑standing suppliers shrank sharply: Canada ‑44%, Brazil ‑41.7%, Mexico ‑37.2%. Even USMCA member states suffer from the 50% tariff, with orders diverted to domestic US and Korean suppliers.
  3. Vietnam recorded a 57.2% YoY export increase to the US, capturing transshipment and general plate orders.
Note: Semi‑finished steel imports (billets, slabs) edged up 2.4%. US importers prefer importing semi‑finished feedstock for domestic EAF re‑rolling to bypass steep finished‑goods tariffs.

II. Impacts on Chinese Steel Pipe Exports (seamless A106‑B, line pipe, structural tubing)

1) Direct exports are effectively closed off

Chinese carbon‑steel seamless pipes, line pipes and OCTG face both the 50% Section 232 baseline tariff and legacy anti‑dumping / countervailing duties (up to 209% for line pipe and 99%+ for OCTG). Combined duties render direct US shipments commercially unviable. In H1 2026, China’s direct steel shipments to the US totalled just 227 000 short tons with tubular products shrinking further as a share.

2) Sunset review for seamless line pipes raises additional risks

On August 6, the US International Trade Commission (ITC) launched sunset reviews on carbon‑steel seamless line pipes from multiple countries. If existing high duties are maintained, the North‑American direct market will remain blocked for another 5‑7 years. US Customs has intensified anti‑circumvention enforcement targeting third‑country transshipment. While some traders reroute goods via Southeast Asia, customs penalties, fines and cargo detention will apply once circumvention is proven. Such routes carry substantial risks and are not recommended for general‑purpose export businesses.

3) Very limited opportunities in niche high‑end segments

Only special‑alloy pipes and non‑standard heavy‑wall tubes, where domestic US capacity is insufficient, generate sporadic demand. These require strict ASTM / ASME compliance and full MTC documentation while still bearing heavy import duties; order sizes are small and certification requirements are demanding.

4) Order spill‑over effect: US demand shifts to third‑party markets

Constrained US domestic supply pushes purchasing pressure outward. Korean and Vietnamese mills that secure US orders compete more aggressively in Middle Eastern, Latin‑American and Southeast‑Asian markets, creating tougher competition for Chinese tubular exporters.

III. Product‑specific trends for tubular goods

Although total imports declined sharply, June imports of line pipe jumped 94% month‑on‑month and structural tubing rose 18%.
  • This stems from ongoing US oil‑and‑gas and infrastructure projects. Domestic pipe capacity is stretched, and incremental volumes are sourced mainly from South Korea and Vietnam. Chinese mills barely participate in this demand growth.

IV. Practical Business Takeaways for Steel‑pipe Exporters

  1. Disregard direct US sales for standard carbon‑steel seamless pipes (A106‑B, standard Sch40 line pipe); direct export is commercially impractical. Exercise extreme caution with third‑country transshipment due to tightening anti‑circumvention rules.
  2. For North‑America‑related business, prioritise Canada and Mexico. Under USMCA quota provisions, goods delivered to Canada or Mexico may enter North‑American supply chains, subject to strict rules‑of‑origin verification.
  3. Monitor FOB offers from South Korea and Vietnam closely. As primary steel suppliers for the US, their pricing directly shapes market levels across the Middle East, Latin America and global markets. Reference their prices before quoting customers.
  4. Target niche non‑standard and alloy tubular products. Where domestic US capacity is limited, limited business opportunities exist, provided full certification and MTC documentation are prepared in advance.


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