From March 8th to 9th, global energy and shipping markets experienced increased volatility, with multiple cost pressures 叠加 directly driving up global tonne-level steel production costs, hitting electric furnace-based DRI (Direct Reduced Iron) processes the hardest. In the energy sector, international oil prices soared. On March 6th, Brent crude oil closed at $92.69 per barrel, a weekly increase of 27.2%, while WTI crude oil closed at $90.90 per barrel, with a weekly surge of 35.6%. As of March 9th, both oil benchmarks had broken through $110 per barrel, hitting a new high since October 2023 with a weekly increase exceeding 30%. The spike in oil prices has directly driven up 同步 ly costs of coking coal, electricity, and natural gas. Notably, coking coal futures limit up by 7.99%, followed by a rise in coke prices.

The cost transmission effect is rapidly evident: fuel costs for long-process blast furnace and converter steel have increased by 30 to 80 yuan per tonne. Rising coking coal and coke prices have further raised long-process tonne-level costs by an additional 20 to 40 yuan. Meanwhile, electricity accounts for over 20% of electric furnace production costs, and natural gas makes up 15% to 20% of costs in gas-based DRI processes. Affected by the sharp surge in energy prices, some high-cost electric furnaces have already experienced production cuts or shutdowns.

The spike in shipping costs has become another important driver. Affected by the suspension of the Red Sea route, container war risk surcharges have risen to $1,000 to $3,000 per container. Combined with the additional costs of rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope, total shipping costs from Asia to the Middle East have increased by 150% to 200% compared to late February, and insurance premiums have risen by over 200%. Additionally, international shipping lines like MSC have announced a Emergency Bunker Adjustment (EBA) of $30 to $60 per TEU for the Red Sea route starting March 16th, further raising logistics costs for enterprises.

Obstacles to raw material imports have further intensified cost pressures. Iran is a major global iron ore exporter, with approximately 50 million tonnes exported annually, 30% of which goes to China. Currently, due to the conflict, iron ore shipments from Iran have been suspended, leading to inventory backlogs at domestic ports. Middle Eastern sulfur, a key raw material for China's phosphate and sulfuric acid industries, has also faced import disruptions, indirectly driving up costs for steel pickling and environmental protection processes.

Notably, despite the overall rise in cost-side factors, iron ore prices have remained relatively stable. On March 8th, the Platts 62% Iron Ore Index stood at $103.15 per tonne, a slight decrease of 0.34%, providing limited support to tonne-level steel costs. Taking China's exported Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) as an example, post-conflict tonne-level total costs rose from 1,470 yuan to 1,698 yuan, an increase of 15.5%. Among these, shipping and insurance costs saw the most significant rise, jumping by 160 yuan per tonne compared to pre-conflict levels.

The cost increases have been directly reflected in global steel prices. As of March 9th, U.S. Hot Rolled Coil prices reached 860 dollars per short ton, up 15 dollars week-on-week; EU hot rolled coil prices stood at 812 dollars per tonne, an increase of 14 dollars; Dubai (Middle East) rebar prices reached 525 dollars per tonne, up 2.1% week-on-week; while Japanese and Korean hot rolled coil prices in Asia remained flat at 480 dollars per tonne. The global steel price regional divergence trend has become increasingly prominent.

Industry analysts predict that within the short term (1 to 4 weeks), the impact of the Middle East conflict on the global steel industry will continue to unfold. On the supply side, the regional supply gap in the Middle East will widen, and delivery times for goods from major exporting countries like India and China will be extended by 15 to 30 days. On the cost side, tonne-level comprehensive costs are expected to rise further, with an estimated total increase of 150 to 250 yuan. Export quotations will need to be raised by 8% to 12% to cover incremental costs. On the price side, steel prices in the Middle East and U.S. markets are expected to continue leading the rise, European markets will fluctuate, and Asian markets will remain weak and stable, with global steel price regional divergence intensifying further.

In response to the current situation, industry experts recommend that steel export enterprises timely adjust their operational strategies: For Middle Eastern and U.S. clients, clearly mark war risk surcharges, insurance premiums, and delays delivery risks, shorten quotation validity periods to 7 days, and advise clients to place 分批 orders and lock in prices. For European clients, superimpose the 10% CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism) 阶梯式 markup on quotations, while providing low-carbon emission certification reports to reduce additional cost expenditures.