一. Surging export prices for ordinary hot‑rolled steel driven by market fundamentals

In July, the Black Sea FOB price for Russian hot‑rolled steel reached USD 517 per tonne, up 16% month‑on‑month.

Two major driving factors:

1. Reduced overall steel exports from China have tightened global supply, leaving room for Russian steel prices to move higher.
2. Conflicts in the Middle East have disrupted maritime shipping, pushing up ocean freight and insurance premiums.

Industry forecasts:‑ Average Black Sea FOB price for Russian hot‑rolled steel in 2026: USD 510 per tonne ‑ Further projected increase to USD 560 per tonne in 2027

Note: The above figures refer to carbon hot‑rolled coils. Special alloy round rods such as 20Cr2Ni4A and 30CrMnSiA have seen larger price hikes than standard hot‑rolled coils. As niche special steel grades with limited production capacity, they exhibit greater price volatility.

二. Escalated shipping risks in the Black Sea (the most critical risk factor at present)

The vast majority of Russian steel exports are shipped out of Novorossiysk Black Sea port. Current geopolitical conditions have created three major challenges:

1. Difficult access to insurance and low vessel‑owner willingness to deploy tonnageMany international underwriters decline war‑risk insurance for the Black Sea. Only a small number of niche insurers provide coverage at substantially higher premiums. Several shipping lines have suspended port calls in the Black Sea.
2. Sharp increase in ocean freight rates‑ Black Sea to Türkiye: freight rates have jumped by USD 35‑40 per tonne. Rates to North Africa (e.g. Egypt) stand at USD 40‑45 per tonne. ‑ Shipping carriers impose additional war surcharges. In some cases, surcharges are retroactively applied to cargo already in transit, creating uncontrollable cost exposure.
3. Diminished spot‑market activityFOB billet quotations are in the range USD 465‑475 per tonne, yet spot material for September shipment is scarce. Most large‑volume orders are fully booked. Many traders issue quotations but refrain from accepting firm new orders.

Practical trade tip: Under FOB Incoterms, ocean freight and war‑related surcharge risks rest with the buyer. CFR / CIF contracts expose you to freight volatility. Minimize concluding CFR / CIF orders based on Black Sea loading ports at this stage.

三. Russian mills prioritise domestic deliveries; export lead‑times extended, especially for special steel

Current strategy of Russian metallurgical producers: domestic sales first, exports second. ‑ For standard carbon steel grades, export lead‑times have generally lengthened by 3‑4 weeks.

‑ For alloy structural steel round rods complying with GOST 4543‑2016 (20Cr2Ni4A and 30CrMnSiA)These are military‑grade special steels. Part of mill capacity serves domestic Russian defence and heavy‑duty machinery sectors. Export‑available spot volumes are limited.

Popular sizes such as Φ25 mm, Φ30 mm and Φ92 mm are rarely available ex‑stock; most business is done on a forward‑order basis. Traditional lead‑times of 45‑60 days have extended to 75‑90 days for most sizes, and even longer for certain specifications.

Mills are in no hurry to accept large export orders and prioritise long‑term domestic contracts. Response times for small‑batch enquiries have slowed down.

Market observation: Many traders can provide quotations, but actual mill production slots cannot be secured. Situations occur where mills raise prices or fail to fulfil orders after quotations have been submitted.

四. Export flows are fully re‑oriented toward the Middle East, Türkiye and North Africa (Egypt as a key growth market)

Due to EU sanctions, finished Russian steel can hardly be shipped directly into European Union territory. Export trade patterns have been completely reshaped.

1. TürkiyeThe largest importer of Russian steel. Large volumes of steel billets and semi‑finished products are imported for further processing, then indirectly re‑exported towards Europe. Nevertheless, amid Black‑Sea shipping risks, Turkish buyers have turned cautious and refrained from bulk purchasing. They are also exploring alternative sources such as Iran.
2. MENA region (Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Algeria etc.)The fastest‑growing destination for Russian alloy round rods and structural steel, including your Egyptian customer base.

Local heavy‑industry and maintenance sectors in Egypt rely heavily on Soviet‑era plant and machinery, hence they predominantly accept material manufactured to GOST standards. Equivalent Chinese GB grades are often not accepted.

Higher ocean freight costs for Chinese steel cargoes bound for North Africa have indirectly improved the competitiveness of Russian steel. Enquiries for special steel originating from Egypt have increased notably recently.

五. Shifted trade patterns: fewer direct finished‑goods exports, more semi‑finished‑product rerouting

On 1 July, the EU implemented its revised steel import‑quota regime, with additional tariffs reaching up to 50 % for volumes exceeding quota limits. Barriers for finished steel entering Europe have risen sharply.

Prevailing trade route:

Russia exports slabs / steel billets (semi‑finished goods) → further rolling and processing in third‑country mills in Türkiye → finished products shipped to the EU.

Business implications for your operations:‑ Direct export of finished Russian round rods into Europe is largely unfeasible. ‑ Your core target markets are the Middle East, North Africa (Egypt) and Central Asia. ‑ Do not trust promises of short‑lead‑time spot stock. For grades 20Cr2Ni4A and 30CrMnSiA, insert contractual clauses allowing for mill price adjustments and delivery extensions to mitigate risks of price hikes or non‑fulfilment.

六. Tightened supply for stainless steel and special alloy steel

Russia’s stainless‑steel output dropped by approximately 18 % in the first half‑year, contributing to constrained availability across special alloy grades.

High‑nickel carburising alloy steel such as 20Cr2Ni4A consumes substantial nickel raw material and faces strong domestic Russian demand. Export volumes cannot expand rapidly. Prices are biased upwards, with no clear prospect of significant near‑term corrections.

Practical take‑aways for foreign‑trade execution

1. When quoting for GOST 20Cr2Ni4A / 30CrMnSiA round rods, prefer FOB Novorossiysk terms. Avoid CFR so that Black‑Sea maritime‑war‑risk exposure sits with the buyer.
2. Clearly inform customers: no spot stock is readily available. Forward‑order lead‑times are 75‑90 days, and mill‑side price revisions remain possible.
3. Enquiries from Egyptian customers are rising. Proactively communicate potential Black‑Sea shipping delays and increased insurance‑cost scenarios.
4. Include contract terms granting the seller the right to revise contractual prices if mill base prices change, protecting against margin erosion.