1) European Market (Flat products lead gains; long products show mixed performance)

Hot-Rolled Coil (HRC): Northwest Europe EXW at €745/tonne (approx. $865/tonne), up €20–30 week-on-week and nearing the €750 mark; Italy EXW at €733/tonne (approx. $852/tonne), seeing a slight pullback. Some mills have secured orders in the 10,000-tonne range for October shipment at €740–750/tonne, demonstrating a strong resolve to maintain prices. Drivers include planned blast furnace maintenance at ThyssenKrupp, production cuts due to force majeure at some mills, the implementation of new EU smelting and casting regulations, and tightened import quotas reducing external supply. However, downstream orders from the automotive and machinery sectors remain weak; end-users are cautious about high prices, purchasing primarily to meet immediate restocking needs rather than engaging in large-scale proactive stockpiling.

Cold-Rolled Coil (CRC): Northwest Europe EXW at €870–880/tonne, up €15–20 week-on-week; Galvanized Coil (GI) rose in tandem to €890–910/tonne; Heavy Plate rose slightly to €840–855/tonne. Price increases for sheet products were more modest than for HRC, with downstream processors exerting significant downward pressure on prices.

Long Products (Rebar, Wire Rod): European construction long products are underperforming compared to flat products. Italian Rebar EXW is at €690/tonne, down €5 week-on-week; Wire Rod is at €700–710/tonne, showing slight weakness. Construction activity resumed more slowly than expected after the summer break, and the anticipated future costs associated with the CBAM carbon tariff are dampening buyer appetite for large orders; consequently, price gains for long products lag significantly behind those of flat products.

Imported Semi-finished Products: Slab CIF Italy is at $560–570/tonne, up $25–30 week-on-week; a shortage of local European billets has driven up import prices rapidly, widening the spread between domestic and import prices to a yearly high. 

2) US Market: Steel mills continue to raise prices, but passing costs downstream faces significant resistance

Midwest ex-works HRC prices rose by $20/ton week-on-week to $1,320/ton—marking the sixth consecutive week of price hikes; cold-rolled coil remained flat at $1,530/ton; hot-dip galvanized coil stood at $1,600/ton; heavy plate remained largely stable at $1,460/ton; and rebar ex-works prices were $1,030/ton, with the upward momentum for long products stalling.

Supply side: Major steel mills (such as Nucor) are proactively controlling output and conducting maintenance, while the continued reduction of social inventories supports price quotes.

Demand pain points: The manufacturing PMI has shown no significant rebound, and the recovery of end-user orders from the automotive and construction machinery sectors remains limited. Distributors are exercising great restraint in procurement, fulfilling only immediate orders and showing reluctance to lock in long-term contracts at high prices; consequently, mills face increasing resistance in passing price hikes downstream, and the market worries about a potential correction later on. While a significant price gap remains between landed import costs and domestic prices, import volumes are constrained by trade barriers.

3) Southeast Asia Market: Prices raised, but actual transactions are scarce

Imported HRC (CFR Vietnam) rose by $2/ton week-on-week to $527/ton; local Vietnamese mills announced October shipment quotes of $540–$543/ton CFR for SS400 HRC—an increase of $10/ton—with discounts available for bulk purchases. HRC prices stood at $530/ton CFR for Indonesia and $530–$535/ton CFR for Indian material.

Current situation: Steel mills have raised quotes, but the narrow spread between import and domestic prices limits their appeal; a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevails following the holiday, resulting in a lack of substantial transactions this week. Activity in downstream infrastructure and manufacturing remains steady without explosive demand; traders are focusing on small-batch restocking and are unwilling to lock in large volumes of forward contracts at high prices. Mainstream FOB prices for Chinese hot-rolled coil (HRC) exports are $491–496/tonne, fluctuating within a narrow range; export order intake is moderate, facing competitive pressure from supplies originating in India and Indonesia. FOB prices for cold-rolled coil (CRC) are $540–550/tonne, showing slight strengthening supported by the cost of the substrate.

4) Black Sea, Turkey, and MENA (Long products strong; flat products rising in tandem)

Turkish rebar export prices (FOB) are $590–605/tonne (up $8–10/tonne week-on-week), while wire rod export prices (FOB) are $600–615/tonne (up $5/tonne week-on-week). Although domestic prices are higher, export buyers are resisting the elevated levels, resulting in lackluster export trading volumes; price hikes are primarily driven by rising scrap costs and a recovery in domestic construction demand. Turkish HRC export prices (FOB) are $595/tonne, rising in step.

Black Sea HRC export prices (FOB) are $500–510/tonne, showing a slight increase; Black Sea slab (FOB) is $515–525/tonne and billet (FOB) is $460–465/tonne. Semi-finished product prices are rising in tandem, with steady export flows primarily directed toward Middle Eastern and North African markets.

Egypt: Local ex-works rebar prices have been raised following the increase in Turkish import costs. Infrastructure tenders in North Africa are providing some support for long products, though purchasing power remains limited, resulting in few large orders at high price points.

5) Raw material prices (driving finished steel costs)

Iron ore (62% Fe Australian fines, CFR China) is priced at $99–100/tonne (up $1/tonne week-on-week); despite periodic disruptions to Australian shipments, port arrivals have increased week-on-week. Overall prices are fluctuating at high levels, with steel mills purchasing on an as-needed basis and avoiding chasing price spikes.

Scrap (HMS 1&2, CFR Turkey) is priced at $388–390/tonne, showing a slight week-on-week increase; European scrap prices are rising alongside a recovery in electric arc furnace (EAF) operating rates, increasing cost pressures on EAF mills and compelling them to hold firm on finished steel prices. 

Coke: Asian coke prices remain firm, indirectly driving up the production costs of blast-furnace finished steel.

Summary of key price drivers this week:

Europe is the primary engine behind the current price rally: the trend is driven by supply contraction and import policy constraints rather than a surge in demand, with flat steel prices rising significantly more than long steel prices; the outlook depends on the pace of production resumption following the completion of blast furnace maintenance.

Price increases in the US are driven by supply contraction, but downstream acceptance is weakening; there is a risk of prices peaking and then falling back.

In Asia (Southeast Asia and the Middle East), price increases are a passive response to rising costs; there is no strong demand driver, resulting in higher quotes but weak transaction volumes—a clear case of "prices without orders."

Price gains for semi-finished products (slabs and billets) have outpaced those of finished products, reflecting a temporary global shortage of steel billets.