Trade Data: Reflecting Global Supply-Demand Patterns

• China's Trade Flows: In May 2025, China imported 125,100 tons of stainless steel, a 12.00% 环比 (month-on-month) decrease and 28.28% 同比 (year-on-year) drop, with cumulative imports from January to May reaching 718,000 tons (-26.47% YoY). Exports stood at 436,300 tons in May (-2.56% MoM, -4.66% YoY), with Jan-May cumulative exports at 2.11 million tons (+10.36% YoY). The net export volume in May was 311,300 tons (+1.82% MoM, +9.88% YoY), with a Jan-May cumulative net export of 1.3921 million tons (+48.81% YoY), highlighting China's growing global supply role.
• Indonesia's Export Impact: China's stainless steel imports from Indonesia dropped to 99,300 tons in May (-14.34% MoM, -32.92% YoY), with Jan-May cumulative imports at 590,900 tons (-30.32% YoY). The mid-late May shutdown of Indonesia's Yongwang for maintenance (scheduled until August, affecting over 150,000 tons of cold-rolled supply) is expected to reduce China's cold-rolled imports significantly.
• Europe's Dependence: Europe's stainless steel manufacturers saw record-high imports of raw materials and semi-finished products in 2024, with nickel pig iron imports surging by nearly 60,000% YoY, stainless steel scrap up 150%, and slab imports at 330,000 tons (highest since 2008). The EU Joint Research Centre (JRC) acknowledged the bloc's complete reliance on stainless steel imports, contradicting its anti-dumping policies.

Cross-Border Collaborations Driving Industrial Upgrades

• Indonesia's Strategic Partnerships:
  • PT CT Advance Technology partnered with Spain’s Tubacex to invest IDR 1 trillion (¥430 million) in Indonesia’s first anti-corrosion stainless steel plant, with an annual capacity of 10,000 tons for marine-grade steel.
  • PT Artas Energi Petrogas collaborated with Inerco Global to build Southeast Asia’s largest seamless steel pipe factory (IDR 2.5 trillion/¥1.08 billion investment, 250,000 tons/year), meeting 50% of Indonesia’s demand and saving IDR 15 trillion (¥6.5 billion) in imports.
• Technological Innovations: Outokumpu launched new stainless steel powders for aerospace 3D printing, integrating global R&D resources to meet strict aviation material standards.

Policy Impacts on Global Trade Flows

• China's Anti-Dumping Review: Since July 23, 2024, China’s Ministry of Commerce has conducted a sunset review of anti-dumping measures on stainless steel billets and hot-rolled coils from the EU, UK, South Korea, and Indonesia, maintaining duties to protect domestic industries.
• Indonesia's Downstreaming Policy: By restricting nickel ore exports and promoting stainless steel production, Indonesia has transformed from a raw material exporter to a global stainless steel manufacturer, attracting international investments (e.g., the Tubacex joint venture).
• EU's Contradictory Policies: While imposing anti-dumping barriers, the EU relies heavily on imports, with Taiwan’s stainless steel safeguard quota already exceeded in Q1 2025, potentially triggering high protective tariffs and trade compliance issues.

Outlook