NEWS&CASES
1. Persistently Sluggish Global End-User Demand
The price rally is entirely cost-driven rather than demand-led, with manufacturing consumption staying muted across all major regions.
- In Europe, high interest rates and weak industrial activity have dragged down orders for home appliances, kitchenware, construction decoration and industrial equipment. Downstream fabricators adopt hand-to-mouth purchasing and avoid bulk stock replenishment; real consumption fails to match price growth.
Southeast Asian manufacturing recovery falls short of expectations. Sluggish real estate and light export orders force local processors to cut operating rates, with purchasing volumes shrinking notably.
Northeast Asian markets including Japan and South Korea see flat demand for automotive lightweight and electrical appliances. Import costs lifted by trade duties further restrain stainless steel consumption substitution.
Global stainless steel inventory levels remain elevated, creating an abnormal market pattern of rising prices paired with shrinking transaction volumes.
2. Indonesia’s Export Restrictions on Stainless Steel Semi-Finished Products Tightens Global Raw Material Supply
As the world’s top supplier of nickel and stainless steel semi-finished goods, Indonesia rolled out tiered export control policies for stainless steel slabs and nickel pig iron starting 2026. Private mills are restricted from direct semi-finished product exports and required to conduct deep processing into cold/hot rolled finished steel domestically before shipment.
The policy cuts global circulation of low-cost stainless steel slabs by 30%-50%. Overseas steelmakers can no longer source cheap Indonesian slabs for self-rolling and have to buy high-priced finished coils directly, lifting overall production costs for nickel-based stainless steel. Nickel resources are prioritized for local new energy battery manufacturing, squeezing raw material allocation for stainless steel and supporting firm nickel pig iron spot prices.
3. EU CBAM Carbon Border Tax & Tighter Steel Import Quotas Add Rigid Export Costs
The full rollout of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) imposes extra carbon compliance expenses on non-EU stainless steel exporters. European local stainless steel mostly adopts low-carbon scrap-based electric furnace production, while Chinese and Indonesian long-process nickel pig iron routes carry far higher carbon emissions. Importers must purchase extra carbon certificates to cover emission gaps, adding USD 40–80 per tonne of stainless steel in carbon costs, plus additional fees for third-party carbon verification.
Compounding the carbon tax impact, the EU’s new Tariff Rate Quota (TRQ) safeguard measures took effect on July 1, slashing duty-free stainless steel import quotas by nearly half and raising over-quota tariffs from 25% to 50%. Dual policy constraints tighten European stainless steel supply and push regional domestic prices above USD 2,400/tonne.
4. Spreading Anti-Dumping Duties Worldwide Create Layered Trade Barriers
Multiple economies launched anti-dumping investigations or issued final penalty tariffs targeting imported stainless steel during H1 2026, blocking low-cost cross-border supply flows and boosting market premiums.
Japan issued preliminary anti-dumping rulings on Chinese nickel-bearing cold-rolled stainless steel with duties ranging from 27.7% to 42.1%. India maintains heavy anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese hot and cold rolled stainless coils.
Eurasian Economic Union extended anti-dumping measures on stainless steel pipes, while Turkey and Brazil monitor plate imports closely with potential new probes.