On the first trading day after the Qingming Festival, the alarm of the domestic commodity futures market suddenly sounded, and the non-ferrous metal sector suffered a "collective dive". The prices of Shanghai copper and international copper futures both fell to the limit. The LME non-ferrous metal market continued the decline during the Qingming Festival. Among them, copper and aluminum rebounded in the morning, but gradually fell back in the afternoon, and the scope of the decline gradually expanded. Data from the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Network shows that the spot price of Yangtze River No. 1 copper is 75220-75260 yuan/ton, with an average price of 5240 yuan/ton, a sharp drop of 3900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of oxygen-free copper wire (hard) is 76250-76550 yuan/ton, with an average price of 76400 yuan/ton, a sharp drop of 3900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of enameled wire is 78510-82510 yuan/ton, with an average price of 80510 yuan/ton, a sharp drop of 3900 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.

Behind this series of drastic fluctuations, the implementation of the US "reciprocal tariff" measures has become the key fuse. Previously, due to rumors of tariffs, the market expected that supply would be affected, and a large amount of funds poured into long copper futures, pushing copper prices up. However, when the United States announced the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs", the situation took a 180-degree turn. The US tariff document shows that some commodities will not be subject to "reciprocal tariffs", including copper. This has greatly weakened the market logic of large-scale imports and hoarding of copper due to tariff rumors in the early stage. The market law of "buy rumors, sell facts" is staged again. Long funds took profits and exited the market rapidly, causing copper prices to fall sharply.

On April 7, the main May contract of copper futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opened at the limit down, down 7.01%. Last week, the main May contract of copper futures on the New York (COMEX) fell 14.09% in a single week, and fell 8.81% on April 4. Entering the Asian trading session on Monday this week, New York copper futures continued to fall, once falling by nearly 8%. Statistics from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) show that as of the week of April 1, speculators' net long positions in COMEX copper futures decreased by 2,352 contracts to 31,274 contracts. Looking back at the week of January 7 this year, speculators held only 6,138 COMEX net long positions. Subsequently, driven by the expectation of a U.S. tax increase, speculators' net long positions showed explosive growth, reaching 33,626 contracts in the week of March 25. As the data last week will be delayed, the market expects that speculators' reduction in positions in the first week of April will be very alarming.

As the bulls in the U.S. copper metal market leave, the U.S. copper futures market, which offers a super-high premium relative to the global market, is also accelerating its decline. At present, the premium has fallen below the $1,000/ton mark. The global copper market rose collectively in the first quarter of this year, but the growth rates of major markets varied significantly. The growth rate of U.S. copper was greater than that of London copper and greater than that of Shanghai copper. COMEX copper hit a record high at the end of the first quarter, with a cumulative increase of about 25% in the first quarter. London copper also broke through the $10,000 mark again at the end of the quarter, with a cumulative increase of about 11% in the first quarter. Shanghai copper stood at the $80,000 mark, with a cumulative increase of less than 10% in the first quarter. As the increase in U.S. copper was greater than that in London copper, the price difference between the two major contracts of New York copper and London copper once widened to more than $1,700/ton, pushing LME's copper stocks in Europe and Asia to flow to North America. Chile's National Copper Corporation said that copper exports to the United States in the first quarter of this year increased by 50% compared with the same period last year. However, after a sharp adjustment last week, the premium of the U.S. copper market relative to the global market was quickly wiped out. The main May contract of New York (COMEX) copper futures fell 14.09% in a single week, while the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper futures fell 11.48% in a single week. From the high point on March 26, the New York copper price has fallen by nearly 19%, while the London copper price has fallen by 14%.

Citigroup's research report believes that due to the impact of tariff increases on global growth expectations, copper consumption and risk appetite, copper is listed as one of the metals most vulnerable to downside risks, given that industrial metals such as copper are currently at high positions. It is expected that copper prices will fall back to about US$8,500/ton by the third quarter of 2025. David Wilson, senior commodity strategist at BNP Paribas, said: "Obviously, the market is considering the negative impact of US reciprocal tariffs on demand and the possible tariff response from major trading partners. We expect this downward trend to continue at least in the short term."

After the market's "stockpiling" logic weakened, fundamental dominance is returning to the market. Galaxy Futures analyst Che Hongyun believes that fundamentals will become the dominant factor in the copper metal market, copper prices will fall again, and the surplus of copper is expected to be 200,000 tons this year. Che Hongyun pointed out that the shadow of global economic turmoil is coming, and copper prices, as an economic barometer, will also face a real test. With the United States imposing tariffs on the world, the United Kingdom, Japan, Europe, and even the United States itself are lowering their economic growth expectations, the growth rate of copper consumption will also be lowered, and the surplus of copper may continue to increase.

However, there are also views that copper still has supporting factors in the long run. Producers believe that as energy transformation and the U.S. data center boom boost demand, the long-term prospects of copper will be supported. "The fundamentals have not changed, and copper is essential to reducing fossil fuel consumption," said Victor Gobitz, head of startup Quilla Resources Inc. In the long run, the difficulties of finding new deposits and financing development also support the prospects of copper. Evy Hambro, global head of thematic and industry investments at BlackRock, said the industry needs higher profit margins to justify the investment needed to increase supply, "We need to see higher prices so that we can encourage investment into new supply areas."

Currently, the copper market is in a complex situation where long and short factors are intertwined, and the future direction is full of uncertainty. Investors and industry practitioners are paying close attention to subsequent policy dynamics and changes in market fundamentals.