NEWS&CASES
Time：2025-08-11
Class：News
The global steel trade is in turmoil: tariffs are skyrocketing, exports are in turmoil, and giants are rerouting their routes overnight!
I. Coated Plates Emerge as New Pillar of China’s Steel Exports, but Growth Faces Multiple Pressures
In the first half of 2025, China’s steel export structure underwent a significant adjustment—coated plates have replaced hot-rolled coils as the new pillar of exports.
Data shows that from January to May 2025, exports of hot-rolled coils plummeted by 2.6 million tons due to anti-dumping sanctions in multiple countries. In contrast, coated plates, leveraging both price and technological advantages, saw exports surge by 1.95 million tons, ranking first in export volume among single product categories.
Data shows that from January to May 2025, exports of hot-rolled coils plummeted by 2.6 million tons due to anti-dumping sanctions in multiple countries. In contrast, coated plates, leveraging both price and technological advantages, saw exports surge by 1.95 million tons, ranking first in export volume among single product categories.
In terms of export destinations, ASEAN countries are the core source of growth: from January to May 2025, ASEAN contributed 30% of the incremental exports of coated plates, with the Philippines alone accounting for 14.8%. However, the good times are short-lived, as coated plates are now facing increasingly stringent trade restrictions, following in the footsteps of hot-rolled coils:
- Southeast Asian countries are continuously escalating anti-dumping measures against coated plates;
- South Korea is also drafting a new round of trade protection policies targeting coated plates.
The underlying contradiction is that although coated plates are classified as upgraded products, they still rely on low-price strategies, making them highly vulnerable to trade restrictions. If this situation remains unaddressed, the supporting role of coated plates in overall steel exports may gradually weaken in the second half of the year.
Additionally, the third quarter marks the off-season for steel consumption overseas, further pressuring market demand. According to a small-sample survey by Mysteel (covering nearly 20% of total coated plate exports to Southeast Asia), enterprise export volumes in July dropped 5%-10% month-on-month. Reasons include: weakened price competitiveness due to rising Chinese export quotes (tracking domestic steel price increases), coupled with high temperatures in Southeast Asia suppressing end-demand, leading to a significant decline in purchasing willingness. 受访 enterprises predict that exports will remain low in July-August, with a slight improvement possible in September as overseas construction demand recovers, though year-on-year growth may slow further.
II. U.S.-Vietnam Trade Agreement Triggers Decline in China’s Steel Exports to Vietnam
According to Xinhua News Agency, U.S. President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam: all Vietnamese exports to the U.S. will face a tariff of at least 20%; for goods originating from third countries and re-exported to the U.S. via Vietnam, tariffs will reach 40%.
This agreement directly impacted China’s steel trade with Vietnam. Vietnam was once China’s largest steel export market: from January to May 2024, China’s steel exports to Vietnam reached 5.511 million tons, a year-on-year surge of 83.9%. However, in the same period in 2025, exports fell to 4.0826 million tons, a year-on-year decline of 25.9%.
Ge Xin, Deputy Director of Lange Steel Research Center, analyzed that this move will severely hit re-export trade: “Many industries in Vietnam rely on raw material imports from China. In the future, they may be forced to upgrade industries and reduce dependence on primary steel products.” This trend is pushing Chinese steel enterprises to accelerate overseas 布局:
- Hengxing Technology plans to invest in Vietnam to build a 150,000-ton/year high-performance prestressed steel strand project;
- Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. and Saudi Aramco are jointly building a plant in Saudi Arabia;
- Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes’ 250,000-ton/year cast pipe project in Egypt has commenced.
III. Canada Imposes Additional Tariffs on Chinese Steel, Adding Uncertainties to Supply Chains
On July 16 (local time), Canada’s Ministry of Finance announced new tariff policies effective August 1:
- Expand the scope of steel import tariff quotas, tighten existing quotas, and impose surtaxes on imports exceeding quotas;
- Levy a 25% surtax on products imported from non-U.S. countries that contain “steel melted and cast in China.”
Canada’s move is directly linked to U.S. tariff policies: previously, U.S. President Trump raised tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50%, leading to a flood of cheap foreign steel into Canada. To protect its domestic industry, Canada was forced to follow suit with tariff hikes.
For China, although the Canadian market is smaller than the U.S. market, its symbolic significance cannot be ignored:
- It further squeezes the market space of Chinese steel enterprises in Canada;
- It disrupts the “third-country processing and transshipment via China” trade model, accelerating the trend toward localized production and third-country processing, which may destabilize existing global steel supply chains;
- It may have a cascading impact on China-Canada economic and trade relations, with the possibility of China taking retaliatory measures.
IV. U.S. Steel Imports Decline; Industry Associations Insist on Maintaining High Tariffs
1. Import Data: Overall Decline with Divergent Trends Among Categories
According to data from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI), in June 2025:
- Import volume of rolled steel was 1.64 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.6%;
- Total steel imports (including rolled products and semi-finished products) were 2.25 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.6%.
Among specific categories, wire rod imports reached 165,660 tons, a month-on-month surge of 40.5%; bar imports were 139,130 tons, a month-on-month increase of 71%; while imports of steel for the petroleum industry fell 31% to 146,520 tons. Finished product imports accounted for 73.1% of total imports in the month.
From January to June 2025, U.S. rolled steel imports totaled 10.79 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%; total steel imports were 14.62 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%. Major suppliers were Canada (2.8 million tons, down 19.4% year-on-year), Brazil (2.58 million tons, up 2.6% year-on-year), and Mexico (1.79 million tons, down 8.4% year-on-year).
2. Industry Stance: Firmly Oppose Tariff Exemptions
Recently, five major U.S. steel industry organizations sent a joint letter to President Trump, explicitly supporting tariff policies implemented under Section 232 and opposing tariff exemptions for any country. The letter emphasized:
- Even during negotiations with individual trading partners on mutual tariff reductions, the 50% tariff should remain in place;
- U.S. steel capacity utilization has not yet reached the recommended 80% level, and global steel overcapacity, coupled with subsidies and unfair competition from other countries, continues to threaten the U.S. market;
- Granting tariff exemptions to countries such as Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and Indonesia would undermine U.S. efforts to reduce the trade deficit and open foreign markets to U.S. goods.