NEWS&CASES
Time：2025-12-08
Class：News
Simandou Iron Ore Commissioning + Nippon Steel Explosion + Europe & US Price Hikes! A Review of Three Core Events in the International Steel Industry in December 2025
I. December 1: Parallel Incidents of Accidents and Capacity Adjustments Bring Multiple Variables at the Start of the Month
1.1 Explosion at Nippon Steel's Hokkaido Plant Disrupts Military Special Steel Supply
At 00:47 local time on December 1, a violent explosion occurred at Nippon Steel's Kita Nippon Steel Works in Muroran City, Hokkaido. The core production equipment, the hot blast stove, burst under a high temperature of 1200℃, sending a 30-meter-high fireball carrying metal debris soaring into the sky. The shock wave affected residential areas several kilometers away. Fire departments dispatched 14 fire engines and 46 firefighters, who brought the fire under control after 5 hours of strenuous efforts. Fortunately, no casualties were reported, but the main structure of the hot blast stove completely collapsed.
Known as the "heart of Japan's defense industry", this plant is a core supply base for high-end military special steel. Its high-strength alloy steel accounts for the vast majority of Japan's military steel consumption, covering key component materials such as submarine pressure hulls, tank armor plates, and fighter aircraft landing gear. The accident forced a full shutdown of the plant. It is estimated that it will take at least 3 months to partially resume production, and full production recovery may take more than half a year, directly reducing Japan's high-end military special steel supply by about 30%. The affected military projects have gradually emerged, with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries' Maya-class destroyer assembly, F-2 fighter aircraft parts production, and Kawasaki Heavy Industries' submarine construction all facing suspension or delay risks.
Industry analysis points out that the root cause of the accident lies in equipment aging and safety management loopholes. The involved hot blast stove had been in continuous operation for 15 years, far exceeding the normal service life of 8-10 years. Moreover, Nippon Steel's maintenance expenditure for the plant decreased by 18% year-on-year in 2024, and safety inspections were a mere formality. Data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange on the same day showed that stainless steel futures contracts 2608 and 2609 rose by 30 yuan/ton and 25 yuan/ton respectively, and quotes for high-end seamless pipes, special stainless steel and other products have shown signs of slight upward adjustment.
1.2 Multiple Countries Promote Capacity Upgrading with Low-Carbon Transition as the Core Direction
On the same day, enterprises from multiple countries intensively announced steel capacity adjustment plans:
- Celsa Steel France completed the modernization renovation of its Bayonne wire rod mill, with new equipment increasing the rolling speed to 105 meters per second;
- ArcelorMittal Belgium plans to upgrade the reheating furnace of its Charleroi medium plate mill in summer 2026, which can operate with a mixed fuel of natural gas and hydrogen after renovation;
- United States Steel Corporation will build a new direct reduced iron plant at its Big River Steel subsidiary in Arkansas, expected to be completed in 2027, which is an important part of its $11 billion modernization renovation plan;
- South Korea officially implemented the steel anti-dumping duty policy to regulate the imported steel market order.
1.3 POSCO Maintains Unchanged Price of 300 Series Stainless Steel Coils to Cope with Sluggish Demand
In early December, POSCO of South Korea announced the price of 300 series stainless steel coils for December, maintaining the November pricing without adjustment. Despite the increased production costs caused by the strengthening US dollar and the rising benchmark prices of raw materials such as chromium, and some steel mills in Europe and Japan have successively raised prices, the current global stainless steel market demand is sluggish, and downstream enterprises are accelerating inventory clearance. POSCO's move aims to maintain the stability of the industrial chain and prevent imported steel products from seizing the local market share amid price hikes.
II. December 2-3: First Shipment from Simandou Rewrites Supply Pattern; Canadian Steel Mill Faces Layoff Dilemma
2.1 First Shipment of 200,000 Tons of Iron Ore from Simandou Sent to China, Changing Global Iron Ore Landscape
At 17:30 local time on December 2, the 200,000-ton deadweight bulk carrier "WINNING YOUTH" set sail for Baosteel's Majishan Port in China after completing loading at the Port of Matakong in Guinea. The total voyage distance is about 10,852 nautical miles, and it is expected to arrive in mid-January 2026. This marks that the Simandou Iron Ore, which has been dormant for nearly 30 years, has officially opened up the entire industrial chain of "mine-railway-port-shipping" and entered the commercial operation stage.
Located in southeastern Guinea, Simandou Iron Ore is the world's largest and highest-quality undeveloped iron ore deposit, with total resources close to 5 billion tons and an average total iron grade of over 65%. The project has a total investment of more than $20 billion, covering facilities such as a 552-kilometer mainline railway and a port with an annual throughput of 120 million tons. After full commissioning, the annual production capacity will reach 120 million tons, accounting for about 5% of the global supply. Chinese enterprises including Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (Chinalco) and Baowu Steel Group have deeply participated, with a shareholding ratio of nearly 51%.
Industry organization analysis shows that the project will transform the global iron ore supply from the duopoly of Australia and Brazil to a tripartite pattern of Australia, Brazil and Africa. For China, after the project is fully commissioned, it will account for nearly one-tenth of China's annual import volume, reducing China's dependence on Australian and Brazilian iron ore from 84% to below 65%, and significantly enhancing China's bargaining power in international iron ore trade. Meanwhile, high-grade iron ore can help steel mills reduce carbon emissions by 5%-8%, facilitating the transition to green steelmaking.
2.2 Steel Prices Continue to Rise in Europe and the US; Nucor of US and ArcelorMittal of Canada Intensively Raise Prices
On December 2, news emerged that the upward trend of steel prices in the US continued. Nucor Corporation kept raising the quoted price of hot-rolled coils, and medium plate mills and sheet mills followed suit. Distributor Majestic Steel announced a 5% price increase. In Canada, ArcelorMittal Dofasco raised prices for the third time in the month, increasing by 100 Canadian dollars per ton, with a cumulative price increase of 300 Canadian dollars per short ton (equivalent to about 215 US dollars per short ton) within a month. The price increase is mainly driven by supply-side factors such as low import volume, low inventory and extended delivery cycles, with part of the demand coming from data center construction and border fence projects.
2.3 Canadian Steel Mill Hit by US Tariffs, Plans to Lay Off One-Third of Its Employees
On December 3, news reported that Algoma Steel Inc. of Canada plans to lay off about one-third of its employees due to the severe impact of US steel tariffs and its accelerated transition to electric arc furnace steelmaking. The company's shipments to the US account for about half of its total sales. The tariff policy has led to its direct quarterly tariff expenditure reaching 89.7 million Canadian dollars, resulting in a sharp rise in financial pressure. The company stated that shutting down blast furnaces and coking production and laying off employees this time are necessary measures to resist market shocks. The transition to electric arc furnace steelmaking can reduce dependence on imported iron ore and cut carbon emissions.
III. December 8: Oman Raises Billet Quotations; Supply Tightens in the Gulf Region
On December 8, news indicated that Omani electric arc furnace producers raised the quotation of 130/150mm 3sp commercial-grade steel billets in the UAE market by $5-8 per ton, with the target price reaching $486-490 per ton (CIF price), higher than the November transaction level of $480-482 per ton. Market analysis points out that the core reason for the price increase is the tight supply of steel billets in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region. Major Qatari enterprises have not yet allocated steel billets to the commercial market for the first quarter of 2026, leading to an imbalance between supply and demand in the regional market. It is expected that the steel billet price will remain firm in the short term.
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